Who's betting on “Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?”?
Politics · $1.0M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 28¢ and No at 72¢, a 72% implied chance of No. $1.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
41% of the money on Yes and 59% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 10 points. A week ago it was split.
741 wallets hold a position worth $335K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 730 of them. The largest Yes holder is nigiri99, with $23K on it, $1.4M lifetime loss over 13,696 markets (46% won). The largest No holder is 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8, with $45K on it, $124K lifetime loss over 93 markets (72% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $57 on Yes; 3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $809 on No.
- Smart money share
- 41% ▼ 6 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 422
- Money on it
- $135K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 2 · $57
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 59% ▲ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 319
- Money on it
- $199K
- Holders' winrate
- 68%
- Snipers
- 3 · $809
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| nigiri99 | $23K | -$1.4M | 46% of 13,696 |
| botbotwhale | $16K | +$602K | 89% of 228 |
| cigarettes | $12K | -$4.2K | 46% of 42,466 |
| awfully | $4.8K | -$16K | 63% of 8 |
| ClauseAI | $4.1K | +$0 | - |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8 | $45K | -$124K | 72% of 93 |
| SlavaUkrainiwhale | $16K | +$726K | 75% of 288 |
| Zacceerie | $12K | -$24K | 64% of 115 |
| Scalpoorwhale | $7.2K | +$45K | 88% of 49 |
| 0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941 | $6.8K | -$50K | 92% of 520 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?"?
741 wallets hold a position worth $335K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 730 of them. The largest Yes holder is nigiri99, with $23K on it, $1.4M lifetime loss over 13,696 markets (46% won). The largest No holder is 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8, with $45K on it, $124K lifetime loss over 93 markets (72% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 28¢ and No at 72¢, a 72% implied chance of No. $1.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
41% of the money on Yes and 59% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 19 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 10 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.