Who's betting on “Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?”?
Politics · $1.3M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 72¢ and No at 28¢, a 72% implied chance of Yes. $1.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
60% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 7 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 17 points.
1,294 wallets hold a position worth $559K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,283 of them. The largest Yes holder is lastminwin, with $46K on it, $10K lifetime loss over 7 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is cigarettes, with $17K on it, $4.2K lifetime loss over 42,466 markets (46% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $3.5K on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $57 on No.
- Smart money share
- 60% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 947
- Money on it
- $439K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 1 · $3.5K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 53%
- Holders
- 347
- Money on it
- $119K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 1 · $57
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| lastminwin | $46K | -$10K | 57% of 7 |
| SlavaUkrainiwhale | $41K | +$726K | 75% of 288 |
| 0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8 | $38K | -$124K | 72% of 93 |
| 0x3E73134C7db1C631607e4A330da916e690eeA49C-1772444757037 | $22K | +$16K | 100% of 3 |
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMAwhale | $14K | +$1.8M | 69% of 1,104 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| cigarettes | $17K | -$4.2K | 46% of 42,466 |
| nigiri99 | $17K | -$1.4M | 46% of 13,696 |
| DickTurbinwhale | $12K | +$186K | 83% of 1,005 |
| flawfencewhale | $11K | +$477K | 75% of 478 |
| botbotwhale | $8.5K | +$602K | 89% of 228 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?"?
1,294 wallets hold a position worth $559K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,283 of them. The largest Yes holder is lastminwin, with $46K on it, $10K lifetime loss over 7 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is cigarettes, with $17K on it, $4.2K lifetime loss over 42,466 markets (46% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 72¢ and No at 28¢, a 72% implied chance of Yes. $1.3M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
60% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 7 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 17 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.