Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $37K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.1K by 65 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 70% 43 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 65% 22 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 91¢ and No at 10¢, a 91% implied chance of Yes. $37K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
70% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 12 points.
Who holds it
65 wallets hold a position worth $5.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 65 of them. The largest Yes holder is TrangNgo, with $2.0K on it, $22K lifetime profit over 211 markets (84% won). The largest No holder is GayPride, with $224 on it, $655K lifetime profit over 674 markets (80% won).
- Holders
- 43
- Money on it
- $4.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 75%
- Holders
- 22
- Money on it
- $384
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$4.7K on it
- 1TrangNgo84% won of 211 · balanced$2.0K+$22K lifetime
- 20xE41adDdfD269f811c8dc173237eD8C4F213d29bD-178604115318879% won of 125$905−$137 lifetime
- 3BobbyBakedBeans41% won of 4,772 · noise$595+$25K lifetime
- 4HotDogs93% won of 617 · whale$215+$21K lifetime
- 5crossx76% won of 173$201−$4.7K lifetime
No$384 on it
- 1GayPride80% won of 674 · whale$224+$655K lifetime
- 2Oklmntrader13% won of 577$78−$173K lifetime
- 3cigarettes46% won of 49,617$48−$52K lifetime
- 45atka60% won of 228 · whale$11+$9.9K lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,511 · noise$8+$254K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in WA-04 House Election Winner
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- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?"?
65 wallets hold a position worth $5.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 65 of them. The largest Yes holder is TrangNgo, with $2.0K on it, $22K lifetime profit over 211 markets (84% won). The largest No holder is GayPride, with $224 on it, $655K lifetime profit over 674 markets (80% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 91¢ and No at 10¢, a 91% implied chance of Yes. $37K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
70% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.