Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the NY-04 House seat?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 95% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 30 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.8K by 29 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 95% 14 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 65% 15 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
95% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 35 points. A week ago, Yes by 31 points.
Who holds it
29 wallets hold a position worth $1.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 29 of them. The largest Yes holder is MateisLostDog, with $308 on it, $49K lifetime profit over 486 markets (36% won). The largest No holder is NotAnIdiot, with $435 on it, $1.5K lifetime profit over 1,435 markets (48% won).
- Holders
- 14
- Money on it
- $361
- Holders' win rate
- 39%
- Holders
- 15
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 47%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$361 on it
- 1MateisLostDog36% won of 486 · noise$308+$49K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,235 · noise$32+$255K lifetime
- 3awgraewrfa100% won of 5$15−$189 lifetime
- 4Numitus199449% won of 15,720$4−$28K lifetime
- 5hadarhaddad49% won of 930 · balanced$1+$2.5K lifetime
No$1.4K on it
- 1NotAnIdiot48% won of 1,435 · balanced$435+$1.5K lifetime
- 2donthackme29% won of 86,904 · noise$371+$829K lifetime
- 3ABC1234565432148% won of 5,905$198−$1.2K lifetime
- 4Gaditima49% won of 12,105$126−$433K lifetime
- 5tsnycpm178% won of 255$115−$1.3K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
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- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the NY-04 House seat?"?
29 wallets hold a position worth $1.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 29 of them. The largest Yes holder is MateisLostDog, with $308 on it, $49K lifetime profit over 486 markets (36% won). The largest No holder is NotAnIdiot, with $435 on it, $1.5K lifetime profit over 1,435 markets (48% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the NY-04 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
95% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 35 points. A week ago, Yes by 31 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.