Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the NC-04 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 92% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 9 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $68K traded all time
- Held now
- $36K by 30 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 84% 20 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 92% 10 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $68K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
84% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 9 points.
Who holds it
30 wallets hold a position worth $36K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 30 of them. The largest Yes holder is ImJustKen, with $750 on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,080 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is 123905, with $32K on it, $6.9K lifetime profit over 5 markets (100% won).
- Holders
- 20
- Money on it
- $1.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
- Holders
- 10
- Money on it
- $35K
- Holders' win rate
- 97%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.1K on it
- 1ImJustKen65% won of 1,080 · whale$750+$2.3M lifetime
- 2UntitledUser176% won of 541 · whale$159+$1.6K lifetime
- 3iuH1398SI73% won of 391$158−$15K lifetime
- 4planktonXD76% won of 6,321 · whale$13+$132K lifetime
- 5Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$8−$485K lifetime
No$35K on it
- 1123905100% won of 5$32K+$6.9K lifetime
- 2purplegatto73% won of 3,515$2.7K−$1.9M lifetime
- 30x9dd9…08bd16% won of 740 · noise$237+$36K lifetime
- 4tundekadiatou92% won of 26 · balanced$57+$1.8K lifetime
- 5johnsinai100% won of 39$55+$21 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in NC-04 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the NC-04 House seat?"?
30 wallets hold a position worth $36K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 30 of them. The largest Yes holder is ImJustKen, with $750 on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,080 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is 123905, with $32K on it, $6.9K lifetime profit over 5 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the NC-04 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $68K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
84% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.