Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 94% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 46 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $26K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.8K by 38 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 48% 21 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 94% 17 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 96¢ and No at 4¢, a 96% implied chance of Yes. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
48% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 46 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 46 points. A week ago, No by 46 points.
Who holds it
38 wallets hold a position worth $1.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 38 of them. The largest Yes holder is Aquetry, with $478 on it, $62 lifetime loss over 4 markets (25% won). The largest No holder is GayPride, with $45 on it, $655K lifetime profit over 674 markets (80% won).
- Holders
- 21
- Money on it
- $1.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Holders
- 17
- Money on it
- $63
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.8K on it
No$63 on it
- 1GayPride80% won of 674 · whale$45+$655K lifetime
- 20xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,163 · noise$8+$335K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$5+$254K lifetime
- 4JakeBeez92% won of 390$2−$517 lifetime
- 5Rain-Prob-015% won of 207$1−$312 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in MS-04 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
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- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat?"?
38 wallets hold a position worth $1.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 38 of them. The largest Yes holder is Aquetry, with $478 on it, $62 lifetime loss over 4 markets (25% won). The largest No holder is GayPride, with $45 on it, $655K lifetime profit over 674 markets (80% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 96¢ and No at 4¢, a 96% implied chance of Yes. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
48% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 46 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 46 points. A week ago, No by 46 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.