Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the MD-04 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 100% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 59 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $27K traded all time
- Held now
- $124 by 16 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 41% 13 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 100% 3 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
41% of the money on Yes and 100% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 59 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 59 points. A week ago, No by 59 points.
Who holds it
16 wallets hold a position worth $124 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 16 of them. The largest Yes holder is cigarettes, with $5 on it, $51K lifetime loss over 49,310 markets (46% won). The largest No holder is 0x9dd9…08bd, with $98 on it, $36K lifetime profit over 740 markets (16% won).
- Holders
- 13
- Money on it
- $20
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
- Holders
- 3
- Money on it
- $104
- Holders' win rate
- 19%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$20 on it
- 1cigarettes46% won of 49,310$5−$51K lifetime
- 20xad4c…26f367% won of 27$5−$220 lifetime
- 3e46m347% won of 87,879 · whale$4+$964K lifetime
- 4Lavincey48% won of 4,970 · whale$1+$62K lifetime
- 5613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44.98% won of 1,007 · whale$1+$21K lifetime
No$104 on it
- 10x9dd9…08bd16% won of 740 · noise$98+$36K lifetime
- 2tttt12374% won of 214 · whale$6+$14K lifetime
- 3SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$0+$48K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in MD-04 House Election Winner
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the MD-04 House seat?"?
16 wallets hold a position worth $124 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 16 of them. The largest Yes holder is cigarettes, with $5 on it, $51K lifetime loss over 49,310 markets (46% won). The largest No holder is 0x9dd9…08bd, with $98 on it, $36K lifetime profit over 740 markets (16% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the MD-04 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
41% of the money on Yes and 100% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 59 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 59 points. A week ago, No by 59 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.