Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the MA-04 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 100% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 84 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $25K traded all time
- Held now
- $140 by 23 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 16% 14 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 100% 9 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $25K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
16% of the money on Yes and 100% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 84 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 84 points. A week ago, No by 79 points.
Who holds it
23 wallets hold a position worth $140 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 23 of them. The largest Yes holder is cigarettes, with $12 on it, $51K lifetime loss over 49,310 markets (46% won). The largest No holder is i2dt, with $49 on it, $17K lifetime profit over 356 markets (71% won).
- Holders
- 14
- Money on it
- $29
- Holders' win rate
- 44%
- Holders
- 9
- Money on it
- $112
- Holders' win rate
- 77%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$29 on it
- 1cigarettes46% won of 49,310$12−$51K lifetime
- 2thecaricature44% won of 717$7−$7.9K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,322 · noise$3+$254K lifetime
- 40x295542613a56F22F0B726B1D26DC4Eaf681e0738-178090330758946% won of 250$3−$1.4K lifetime
- 5tomkat0736% won of 231$1−$125 lifetime
No$112 on it
- 1i2dt71% won of 356 · whale$49+$17K lifetime
- 2legnapol288% won of 25$48+$5 lifetime
- 31x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb940% won of 209,162 · noise$7+$6.8K lifetime
- 4wokerjoesleeper91% won of 1,109 · whale$6+$605K lifetime
- 5daroghi84% won of 429 · whale$1+$192K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in MA-04 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
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- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the MA-04 House seat?"?
23 wallets hold a position worth $140 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 23 of them. The largest Yes holder is cigarettes, with $12 on it, $51K lifetime loss over 49,310 markets (46% won). The largest No holder is i2dt, with $49 on it, $17K lifetime profit over 356 markets (71% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the MA-04 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $25K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
16% of the money on Yes and 100% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 84 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 84 points. A week ago, No by 79 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.