Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 97% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 67 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $43K traded all time
- Held now
- $14K by 78 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 29% 37 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 97% 41 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 30¢ and No at 71¢, a 71% implied chance of No. $43K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
29% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 67 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 66 points. A week ago, No by 54 points.
Who holds it
78 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 78 of them. The largest Yes holder is cigarettes, with $1.2K on it, $49K lifetime loss over 49,227 markets (46% won). The largest No holder is tunatyler, with $3.4K on it, $266K lifetime profit over 1,038 markets (56% won).
- Holders
- 37
- Money on it
- $4.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 48%
- Holders
- 41
- Money on it
- $8.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$4.9K on it
- 1cigarettes46% won of 49,227$1.2K−$49K lifetime
- 2Gaditima49% won of 12,108$1.2K−$432K lifetime
- 3SingletonFamilyFund39% won of 314 · noise$656+$10K lifetime
- 4Hyperlong51% won of 1,296$615−$59K lifetime
- 50x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393842% won of 9,618 · whale$475+$127K lifetime
No$8.8K on it
- 1tunatyler56% won of 1,038 · whale$3.4K+$266K lifetime
- 2The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA69% won of 1,117 · whale$2.5K+$1.8M lifetime
- 3Rebecca-9556% won of 164 · balanced$1.5K+$21K lifetime
- 4G.Hchen44% won of 239 · noise$423+$22K lifetime
- 5SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$295+$48K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in IA-02 House Election Winner
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- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?"?
78 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 78 of them. The largest Yes holder is cigarettes, with $1.2K on it, $49K lifetime loss over 49,227 markets (46% won). The largest No holder is tunatyler, with $3.4K on it, $266K lifetime profit over 1,038 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 30¢ and No at 71¢, a 71% implied chance of No. $43K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
29% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 67 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 66 points. A week ago, No by 54 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.