Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the CT-04 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 94% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 25 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $26K traded all time
- Held now
- $337 by 26 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 68% 13 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 94% 13 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
68% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 25 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
Who holds it
26 wallets hold a position worth $337 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 26 of them. The largest Yes holder is SitsToPee, with $16 on it, $48K lifetime profit over 2,065 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is raptu, with $98 on it, $10 lifetime profit over 21 markets (95% won).
- Holders
- 13
- Money on it
- $44
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
- Holders
- 13
- Money on it
- $293
- Holders' win rate
- 88%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$44 on it
- 1SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$16+$48K lifetime
- 2Rotem161649% won of 206$11−$4.1K lifetime
- 30xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$6+$334K lifetime
- 40x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393842% won of 9,618 · whale$2+$127K lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$2+$255K lifetime
No$293 on it
- 1raptu95% won of 21$98+$10 lifetime
- 2kahramanjon95% won of 20$49+$14 lifetime
- 3mikewinston100% won of 20$49+$8 lifetime
- 4Giuliano30386% won of 65 · balanced$44+$1.2K lifetime
- 5PPMT70% won of 56,626 · whale$29+$16K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in CT-04 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the CT-04 House seat?"?
26 wallets hold a position worth $337 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 26 of them. The largest Yes holder is SitsToPee, with $16 on it, $48K lifetime profit over 2,065 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is raptu, with $98 on it, $10 lifetime profit over 21 markets (95% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the CT-04 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
68% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 25 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.