Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the CA-46 House seat?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 89% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 85 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $46K traded all time
- Held now
- $11K by 30 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 89% 16 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 4% 14 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $46K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
89% of the money on Yes and 4% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 85 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 85 points. A week ago, Yes by 84 points.
Who holds it
30 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 30 of them. The largest Yes holder is ImJustKen, with $302 on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,080 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is purplegatto, with $10K on it, $1.9M lifetime loss over 3,511 markets (73% won).
- Holders
- 16
- Money on it
- $415
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
- Holders
- 14
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' win rate
- 72%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$415 on it
- 1ImJustKen65% won of 1,080 · whale$302+$2.3M lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$34+$254K lifetime
- 3Anjun67% won of 1,886 · whale$20+$801K lifetime
- 4RolandZhang41% won of 269$17−$1.1K lifetime
- 5Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$16−$485K lifetime
No$11K on it
- 1purplegatto73% won of 3,511$10K−$1.9M lifetime
- 20x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393843% won of 9,933 · whale$277+$129K lifetime
- 3tsnycpm178% won of 255$113−$1.3K lifetime
- 40x295542613a56F22F0B726B1D26DC4Eaf681e0738-178090330758946% won of 250$94−$1.4K lifetime
- 5123905100% won of 5$92+$6.9K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the CA-46 House seat?"?
30 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 30 of them. The largest Yes holder is ImJustKen, with $302 on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,080 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is purplegatto, with $10K on it, $1.9M lifetime loss over 3,511 markets (73% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the CA-46 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $46K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
89% of the money on Yes and 4% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 85 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 85 points. A week ago, Yes by 84 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.