Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the CA-38 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 100% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 45 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $32K traded all time
- Held now
- $274 by 25 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 55% 18 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 100% 7 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $32K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
55% of the money on Yes and 100% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 45 points. A week ago, No by 45 points.
Who holds it
25 wallets hold a position worth $274 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 25 of them. The largest Yes holder is Dr.PNL, with $4 on it, $485K lifetime loss over 15,294 markets (30% won). The largest No holder is fr5wkuusik5874, with $99 on it, $7 lifetime profit over 17 markets (100% won).
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $24
- Holders' win rate
- 42%
- Holders
- 7
- Money on it
- $250
- Holders' win rate
- 73%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$24 on it
- 1Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$4−$485K lifetime
- 221Dipolicy76% won of 88 · balanced$4+$1.9K lifetime
- 3PolyArbi42% won of 292 · noise$4+$92 lifetime
- 42B9S27% won of 14,516 · noise$3+$97K lifetime
- 5NotAnIdiot48% won of 1,435 · balanced$3+$1.5K lifetime
No$250 on it
- 1fr5wkuusik5874100% won of 17$99+$7 lifetime
- 20x9dd9…08bd16% won of 740 · noise$68+$36K lifetime
- 3eestiburns93% won of 29$51+$9 lifetime
- 4immanuelcan78% won of 1,011 · whale$31+$39K lifetime
- 5qwasd298% won of 103$2+$54 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in CA-38 House Election Winner
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the CA-38 House seat?"?
25 wallets hold a position worth $274 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 25 of them. The largest Yes holder is Dr.PNL, with $4 on it, $485K lifetime loss over 15,294 markets (30% won). The largest No holder is fr5wkuusik5874, with $99 on it, $7 lifetime profit over 17 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the CA-38 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $32K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
55% of the money on Yes and 100% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 45 points. A week ago, No by 45 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.