Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the CA-32 House seat?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $16K traded all time
- Held now
- $266 by 23 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 87% 16 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 85% 7 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
87% of the money on Yes and 85% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
23 wallets hold a position worth $266 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 23 of them. The largest Yes holder is HolyMoses7, with $9 on it, $179K lifetime profit over 1,503 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is 0x9dd9…08bd, with $99 on it, $36K lifetime profit over 740 markets (16% won).
- Holders
- 16
- Money on it
- $45
- Holders' win rate
- 44%
- Holders
- 7
- Money on it
- $221
- Holders' win rate
- 46%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$45 on it
- 1HolyMoses753% won of 1,503 · whale$9+$179K lifetime
- 20xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,163 · noise$8+$335K lifetime
- 30x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393843% won of 9,933 · whale$6+$129K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,511 · noise$6+$254K lifetime
- 5qcp273% won of 251 · whale$5+$1.3K lifetime
No$221 on it
- 10x9dd9…08bd16% won of 740 · noise$99+$36K lifetime
- 2immanuelcan78% won of 1,011 · whale$59+$39K lifetime
- 3pd.unique69% won of 340 · whale$30+$7.7K lifetime
- 4noise126trader63% won of 208$28−$551 lifetime
- 5wqeewqeadawfawfwa42% won of 1,925$5−$9.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the CA-32 House seat?"?
23 wallets hold a position worth $266 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 23 of them. The largest Yes holder is HolyMoses7, with $9 on it, $179K lifetime profit over 1,503 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is 0x9dd9…08bd, with $99 on it, $36K lifetime profit over 740 markets (16% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the CA-32 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
87% of the money on Yes and 85% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.