Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the CA-30 House seat?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 88% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 17 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.9K by 25 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 88% 16 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 71% 9 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
88% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 17 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
25 wallets hold a position worth $1.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 25 of them. The largest Yes holder is ImJustKen, with $35 on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,080 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938, with $751 on it, $129K lifetime profit over 9,933 markets (43% won).
- Holders
- 16
- Money on it
- $74
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Holders
- 9
- Money on it
- $1.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 48%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$74 on it
- 1ImJustKen65% won of 1,080 · whale$35+$2.3M lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,511 · noise$23+$254K lifetime
- 3Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$5−$485K lifetime
- 4thecaricature44% won of 717$3−$7.9K lifetime
- 573f44919CE0143F0e9a05F531f7C8B15c8a483a0.96% won of 716 · grinder$2+$1.3K lifetime
No$1.9K on it
- 10x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393843% won of 9,933 · whale$751+$129K lifetime
- 2ABC1234565432148% won of 6,025$398−$1.3K lifetime
- 3oneoftheppl58% won of 855 · whale$295+$13K lifetime
- 4SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$260+$48K lifetime
- 5cigarettes46% won of 49,325$108−$52K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in CA-30 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 18%No 83%Smart money: No
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- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the CA-30 House seat?"?
25 wallets hold a position worth $1.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 25 of them. The largest Yes holder is ImJustKen, with $35 on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,080 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938, with $751 on it, $129K lifetime profit over 9,933 markets (43% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the CA-30 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
88% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 17 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.