Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the CA-28 House seat?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $84K traded all time
- Held now
- $15K by 49 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 97% 23 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 97% 26 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $84K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
97% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
49 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 49 of them. The largest Yes holder is SitsToPee, with $191 on it, $48K lifetime profit over 2,065 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is Paeniscus, with $5.9K on it, $1.7K lifetime profit over 19 markets (84% won).
- Holders
- 23
- Money on it
- $376
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
- Holders
- 26
- Money on it
- $15K
- Holders' win rate
- 83%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$376 on it
- 1SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$191+$48K lifetime
- 2randomaccount750% won of 2$165+$26K lifetime
- 3cowcat68% won of 1,069 · whale$5+$72K lifetime
- 4miroshsa46% won of 203$4−$1.4K lifetime
- 5thecaricature44% won of 717$3−$7.9K lifetime
No$15K on it
- 1Paeniscus84% won of 19$5.9K+$1.7K lifetime
- 20x120b3E2E98fC4fe8C383C70867fD635669F1eE03-173049199943099% won of 129 · balanced$5.0K+$12K lifetime
- 3Paeniscus.70% won of 80 · balanced$2.4K+$4.5K lifetime
- 4HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$385+$325K lifetime
- 50x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-179243706475847% won of 827$384−$8.4K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in CA-28 House Election Winner
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the CA-28 House seat?"?
49 wallets hold a position worth $15K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 49 of them. The largest Yes holder is SitsToPee, with $191 on it, $48K lifetime profit over 2,065 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is Paeniscus, with $5.9K on it, $1.7K lifetime profit over 19 markets (84% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the CA-28 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $84K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
97% of the money on Yes and 97% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.