Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the CA-21 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 96% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 30 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $23K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.3K by 35 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 66% 25 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 96% 10 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $23K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
66% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 26 points. A week ago, No by 18 points.
Who holds it
35 wallets hold a position worth $4.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 35 of them. The largest Yes holder is cowcat, with $59 on it, $72K lifetime profit over 1,069 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is Seutervoinen, with $3.1K on it, $127K lifetime profit over 525 markets (82% won).
- Holders
- 25
- Money on it
- $198
- Holders' win rate
- 50%
- Holders
- 10
- Money on it
- $4.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 76%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$198 on it
- 1cowcat68% won of 1,069 · whale$59+$72K lifetime
- 2LornaPredicts28% won of 15,970 · noise$28+$28K lifetime
- 30x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393843% won of 9,933 · whale$26+$129K lifetime
- 4Oklmntrader13% won of 577$15−$173K lifetime
- 5Gaditima49% won of 12,111$13−$434K lifetime
No$4.1K on it
- 1Seutervoinen82% won of 525 · whale$3.1K+$127K lifetime
- 2SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$801+$48K lifetime
- 3tsnycpm178% won of 255$112−$1.3K lifetime
- 4rontaksebe75% won of 20$60+$7 lifetime
- 5wqeewqeadawfawfwa42% won of 1,925$38−$9.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in CA-21 House Election Winner
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- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the CA-21 House seat?"?
35 wallets hold a position worth $4.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 35 of them. The largest Yes holder is cowcat, with $59 on it, $72K lifetime profit over 1,069 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is Seutervoinen, with $3.1K on it, $127K lifetime profit over 525 markets (82% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the CA-21 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $23K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
66% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 26 points. A week ago, No by 18 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.