Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the CA-20 House seat?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 64% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 22 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $29K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.9K by 28 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 64% 15 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 42% 13 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 98¢ and No at 2¢, a 98% implied chance of Yes. $29K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
64% of the money on Yes and 42% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 22 points. A week ago, Yes by 19 points.
Who holds it
28 wallets hold a position worth $3.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 28 of them. The largest Yes holder is Paeniscus., with $1.5K on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 80 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is planktonXD, with $17 on it, $132K lifetime profit over 6,321 markets (76% won).
- Holders
- 15
- Money on it
- $3.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
- Holders
- 13
- Money on it
- $55
- Holders' win rate
- 41%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.9K on it
- 1Paeniscus.70% won of 80 · balanced$1.5K+$4.5K lifetime
- 274-7541% won of 94$692−$2.5K lifetime
- 3SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$602+$48K lifetime
- 4macrosteaks64% won of 2,637$541−$8.2K lifetime
- 5PolyArbi42% won of 292 · noise$196+$92 lifetime
No$55 on it
- 1planktonXD76% won of 6,321 · whale$17+$132K lifetime
- 2ViscaElBarca1% won of 12,734$15−$65K lifetime
- 3Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$8−$485K lifetime
- 4GUINESS12370% won of 547$6−$59K lifetime
- 5BSS3728% won of 337 · noise$2+$7.9K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in CA-20 House Election Winner
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the CA-20 House seat?"?
28 wallets hold a position worth $3.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 28 of them. The largest Yes holder is Paeniscus., with $1.5K on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 80 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is planktonXD, with $17 on it, $132K lifetime profit over 6,321 markets (76% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the CA-20 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 98¢ and No at 2¢, a 98% implied chance of Yes. $29K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
64% of the money on Yes and 42% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 22 points. A week ago, Yes by 19 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.