Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the CA-08 House seat?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $43K traded all time
- Held now
- $16K by 24 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 98% 10 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 94% 14 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $43K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
98% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
24 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 24 of them. The largest Yes holder is SitsToPee, with $260 on it, $48K lifetime profit over 2,065 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is 123905, with $12K on it, $6.9K lifetime profit over 5 markets (100% won).
- Holders
- 10
- Money on it
- $506
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
- Holders
- 14
- Money on it
- $16K
- Holders' win rate
- 89%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$506 on it
- 1SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$260+$48K lifetime
- 2GayPride80% won of 674 · whale$214+$655K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,235 · noise$14+$255K lifetime
- 4Dr.PNL30% won of 15,261$8−$485K lifetime
- 573f44919CE0143F0e9a05F531f7C8B15c8a483a0.95% won of 698 · grinder$5+$1.3K lifetime
No$16K on it
- 1123905100% won of 5$12K+$6.9K lifetime
- 2i2dt71% won of 353 · whale$1.9K+$17K lifetime
- 30x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393842% won of 9,618 · whale$737+$127K lifetime
- 4anciano49% won of 1,299 · whale$563+$37K lifetime
- 5macrosteaks64% won of 2,609$297−$7.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in CA-08 House Election Winner
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the CA-08 House seat?"?
24 wallets hold a position worth $16K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 24 of them. The largest Yes holder is SitsToPee, with $260 on it, $48K lifetime profit over 2,065 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is 123905, with $12K on it, $6.9K lifetime profit over 5 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the CA-08 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $43K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
98% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.