Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 95% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 84 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $27K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.9K by 50 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 10% 24 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 95% 26 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
10% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 84 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 84 points. A week ago, No by 87 points.
Who holds it
50 wallets hold a position worth $4.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 50 of them. The largest Yes holder is lonehighway, with $150 on it, $2.4K lifetime loss over 203 markets (90% won). The largest No holder is cowcat, with $2.8K on it, $63K lifetime profit over 1,068 markets (68% won).
- Holders
- 24
- Money on it
- $182
- Holders' win rate
- 84%
- Holders
- 26
- Money on it
- $4.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$182 on it
- 1lonehighway90% won of 203$150−$2.4K lifetime
- 2planktonXD76% won of 6,321 · whale$6+$132K lifetime
- 3MartinaCandombe35% won of 244 · noise$4+$3.5K lifetime
- 4zeitfi-vault-v260% won of 926 · balanced$3+$868 lifetime
- 5gdrs7692% won of 595 · grinder$3+$199 lifetime
No$4.7K on it
- 1cowcat68% won of 1,068 · whale$2.8K+$63K lifetime
- 2SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$473+$48K lifetime
- 3asdasdasdasdasdasdasd76% won of 241 · balanced$468+$23K lifetime
- 4mwenya51% won of 1,059 · whale$442+$114K lifetime
- 5macrosteaks64% won of 2,609$205−$7.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in CA-06 House Election Winner
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- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat?"?
50 wallets hold a position worth $4.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 50 of them. The largest Yes holder is lonehighway, with $150 on it, $2.4K lifetime loss over 203 markets (90% won). The largest No holder is cowcat, with $2.8K on it, $63K lifetime profit over 1,068 markets (68% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 2¢ and No at 98¢, a 98% implied chance of No. $27K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
10% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 84 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 84 points. A week ago, No by 87 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.