Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 88% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 23 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $24K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.6K by 34 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 88% 17 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 65% 17 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 86¢ and No at 14¢, an 86% implied chance of Yes. $24K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
88% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 23 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 85 points.
Who holds it
34 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 34 of them. The largest Yes holder is TrangNgo, with $1.3K on it, $22K lifetime profit over 211 markets (84% won). The largest No holder is bananabreakfast, with $30 on it, $5.1K lifetime profit over 2,392 markets (48% won).
- Holders
- 17
- Money on it
- $1.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 79%
- Holders
- 17
- Money on it
- $67
- Holders' win rate
- 44%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.6K on it
- 1TrangNgo84% won of 211 · balanced$1.3K+$22K lifetime
- 2Haradwaith50% won of 54,058$69−$377K lifetime
- 3Majas29% won of 25,157$52−$24K lifetime
- 4lonehighway90% won of 203$43−$2.4K lifetime
- 50xeCf5E6aBb97ea4C1af8a7258778D23EBeBF1F5Db-177418956540838% won of 112$28+$1.6K lifetime
No$67 on it
- 1bananabreakfast48% won of 2,392 · balanced$30+$5.1K lifetime
- 2Dr.PNL30% won of 15,261$9−$485K lifetime
- 3ABC1234565432148% won of 5,905$5−$1.2K lifetime
- 40xNorthstrider41% won of 201$3−$757 lifetime
- 5donthackme29% won of 87,062 · noise$3+$829K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in AZ-05 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
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- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?"?
34 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 34 of them. The largest Yes holder is TrangNgo, with $1.3K on it, $22K lifetime profit over 211 markets (84% won). The largest No holder is bananabreakfast, with $30 on it, $5.1K lifetime profit over 2,392 markets (48% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 86¢ and No at 14¢, an 86% implied chance of Yes. $24K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
88% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 23 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 85 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.