Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the AZ-04 House seat?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 57% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 27 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.6K by 33 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 57% 18 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 29% 15 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
57% of the money on Yes and 29% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 27 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 27 points. A week ago, Yes by 38 points.
Who holds it
33 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 33 of them. The largest Yes holder is FrankyFourFingers, with $28 on it, $7.0K lifetime loss over 264 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is 0x97b457Ae08fc1041f3d5ca833a668B9471d5d794-1783066720036, with $599 on it, $230 lifetime loss over 43 markets (35% won).
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $103
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 15
- Money on it
- $1.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 48%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$103 on it
- 1FrankyFourFingers69% won of 264$28−$7.0K lifetime
- 2Anjun67% won of 1,886 · whale$27+$801K lifetime
- 30x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393842% won of 9,618 · whale$15+$127K lifetime
- 4Oklmntrader13% won of 577$6−$173K lifetime
- 5randomaccount750% won of 2$5+$26K lifetime
No$1.5K on it
- 10x97b457Ae08fc1041f3d5ca833a668B9471d5d794-178306672003635% won of 43$599−$230 lifetime
- 2LarBotPrime56% won of 215$255−$1.4K lifetime
- 30x295542613a56F22F0B726B1D26DC4Eaf681e0738-178090330758946% won of 248$189−$1.6K lifetime
- 4peepeepooppoop64% won of 1,563 · whale$160+$31K lifetime
- 5cowcat68% won of 1,069 · whale$105+$72K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in AZ-04 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the AZ-04 House seat?"?
33 wallets hold a position worth $1.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 33 of them. The largest Yes holder is FrankyFourFingers, with $28 on it, $7.0K lifetime loss over 264 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is 0x97b457Ae08fc1041f3d5ca833a668B9471d5d794-1783066720036, with $599 on it, $230 lifetime loss over 43 markets (35% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the AZ-04 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
57% of the money on Yes and 29% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 27 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 27 points. A week ago, Yes by 38 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.