Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 80% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 18 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $95K traded all time
- Held now
- $32K by 106 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 80% 40 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 62% 66 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 21¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $95K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
80% of the money on Yes and 62% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 18 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 24 points. A week ago, Yes by 35 points.
Who holds it
106 wallets hold a position worth $32K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 106 of them. The largest Yes holder is HowBoutThemCowboys, with $7.2K on it, $75K lifetime profit over 18 markets (89% won). The largest No holder is 0xheavy888, with $4.0K on it, $556K lifetime profit over 5,819 markets (69% won).
- Holders
- 40
- Money on it
- $13K
- Holders' win rate
- 75%
- Holders
- 66
- Money on it
- $19K
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$13K on it
- 1HowBoutThemCowboys89% won of 18$7.2K+$75K lifetime
- 2lomneivan77% won of 61 · whale$1.9K+$75K lifetime
- 3Gaditima49% won of 12,107$1.8K−$432K lifetime
- 40x6b25…7a6953% won of 2,162 · whale$815+$19K lifetime
- 5ABC1234565432148% won of 5,905$335−$1.2K lifetime
No$19K on it
- 10xheavy88869% won of 5,819 · whale$4.0K+$556K lifetime
- 2mrworldwide70% won of 1,445 · whale$3.4K+$219K lifetime
- 3afdafdafdafdafd71% won of 324$3.1K−$118K lifetime
- 4SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$2.7K+$48K lifetime
- 5Haradwaith50% won of 53,968$1.9K−$377K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in AZ-01 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?"?
106 wallets hold a position worth $32K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 106 of them. The largest Yes holder is HowBoutThemCowboys, with $7.2K on it, $75K lifetime profit over 18 markets (89% won). The largest No holder is 0xheavy888, with $4.0K on it, $556K lifetime profit over 5,819 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 21¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $95K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
80% of the money on Yes and 62% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 18 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 24 points. A week ago, Yes by 35 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.