Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?”?
Politics · $3.7M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 34¢ and No at 67¢, a 67% implied chance of No. $3.7M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
43% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 41 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 40 points. A week ago, No by 38 points.
1,735 wallets hold a position worth $1.0M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,708 of them. The largest Yes holder is ThisAgain, with $44K on it, $692K lifetime loss over 14 markets (93% won). The largest No holder is Siddhartha1, with $123K on it, $259K lifetime profit over 71 markets (90% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.5K on Yes; 2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $3.0K on No; the insider radar has flagged 2 wallets betting $35K on Yes; the insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $15K on No.
- Smart money share
- 43% ▼ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $516K
- Holders' winrate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.5K
- Insider flags
- 2 · $35K
- Smart money share
- 83% ▼ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 735
- Money on it
- $516K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 2 · $3.0K
- Insider flags
- 1 · $15K
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ThisAgain | $44K | -$692K | 93% of 14 |
| lomneivanwhale | $40K | +$133K | 80% of 59 |
| nigiri99 | $34K | -$1.4M | 46% of 13,628 |
| yexiaodong333 | $33K | -$2.8K | 88% of 17 |
| Arbguywhale | $19K | +$481K | 45% of 1,009 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Siddhartha1whale | $123K | +$259K | 90% of 71 |
| BreakTheBankwhale | $36K | +$10M | 87% of 609 |
| foodenjoyerwhale | $22K | +$1.2M | 52% of 147 |
| wan123whale | $20K | +$1.2M | 79% of 273 |
| WordleAddictwhale | $20K | +$642K | 61% of 1,058 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?"?
1,735 wallets hold a position worth $1.0M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,708 of them. The largest Yes holder is ThisAgain, with $44K on it, $692K lifetime loss over 14 markets (93% won). The largest No holder is Siddhartha1, with $123K on it, $259K lifetime profit over 71 markets (90% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 34¢ and No at 67¢, a 67% implied chance of No. $3.7M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
43% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 41 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 40 points. A week ago, No by 38 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
2 wallets on Yes ($35K) and 1 wallet on No ($15K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.