Who's betting on “Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?”?
Politics · $5.2M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 67¢ and No at 34¢, a 67% implied chance of Yes. $5.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
62% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
1,719 wallets hold a position worth $2.1M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,694 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $252K on it, $10M lifetime profit over 609 markets (87% won). The largest No holder is thesingularityisnear, with $161K on it, $1.4M lifetime profit over 6 markets (100% won).
6 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $15K on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $3 on No; the insider radar has flagged 10 wallets betting $82K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 62%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $1.6M
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 6 · $15K
- Insider flags
- 10 · $82K
- Smart money share
- 72% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 719
- Money on it
- $536K
- Holders' winrate
- 74%
- Snipers
- 1 · $3
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BreakTheBankwhale | $252K | +$10M | 87% of 609 |
| BearKingdom | $53K | -$1.7K | 60% of 5 |
| cocos228whale | $48K | +$537K | 71% of 110 |
| 0xac8db3b4afea21b73ffdc92fjk | $47K | -$137K | 66% of 200 |
| yuahldj | $47K | +$271K | 100% of 9 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| thesingularityisnear | $161K | +$1.4M | 100% of 6 |
| lomneivanwhale | $93K | +$133K | 80% of 59 |
| 11122noise | $59K | +$630K | 42% of 1,111 |
| bullishkirby | $46K | -$105K | 78% of 204 |
| 0x10B30364936B03d26B3FD01a63D1f991454b40d4-1723051915288whale | $33K | +$3.9K | 52% of 202 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?"?
1,719 wallets hold a position worth $2.1M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,694 of them. The largest Yes holder is BreakTheBank, with $252K on it, $10M lifetime profit over 609 markets (87% won). The largest No holder is thesingularityisnear, with $161K on it, $1.4M lifetime profit over 6 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 67¢ and No at 34¢, a 67% implied chance of Yes. $5.2M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
62% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 10 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 12 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
10 wallets on Yes ($82K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.