Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-04 House election by 20%-25%?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 81% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 76 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $13K traded all time
- Held now
- $218 by 35 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 81% 24 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 5% 11 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 17¢ and No at 83¢, an 83% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
81% of the money on Yes and 5% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 76 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 74 points. A week ago, Yes by 67 points.
Who holds it
35 wallets hold a position worth $218 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 35 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $59 on it, $254K lifetime profit over 123,272 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is cigarettes, with $24 on it, $52K lifetime loss over 49,301 markets (46% won).
- Holders
- 24
- Money on it
- $165
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 11
- Money on it
- $53
- Holders' win rate
- 43%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$165 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$59+$254K lifetime
- 2fkpa82% won of 342 · balanced$44+$42K lifetime
- 30xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl80% won of 1,104 · balanced$16+$28K lifetime
- 4alfonse315% won of 26$8−$8 lifetime
- 5Polimaki47% won of 36,882$7−$17K lifetime
No$53 on it
- 1cigarettes46% won of 49,301$24−$52K lifetime
- 2pootytherewardfarmer35% won of 10,703$13−$320K lifetime
- 3tradetosurvive145% won of 25,346$8−$217K lifetime
- 4Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$3−$485K lifetime
- 5garbagecollect451% won of 6,670 · whale$3+$499 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in KY-04 House Election Margin of Victory
1 moreOther big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-04 House election by 20%-25%?"?
35 wallets hold a position worth $218 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 35 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $59 on it, $254K lifetime profit over 123,272 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is cigarettes, with $24 on it, $52K lifetime loss over 49,301 markets (46% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-04 House election by 20%-25%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 17¢ and No at 83¢, an 83% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
81% of the money on Yes and 5% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 76 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 74 points. A week ago, Yes by 67 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.