Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-04 House election by 30%-35%?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 84% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 26 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $13K traded all time
- Held now
- $426 by 33 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 84% 24 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 58% 9 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 27¢ and No at 73¢, a 73% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
84% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 17 points. A week ago, Yes by 22 points.
Who holds it
33 wallets hold a position worth $426 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 33 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754, with $149 on it, $8.7K lifetime profit over 13 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $66 on it, $254K lifetime profit over 123,272 markets (40% won).
- Holders
- 24
- Money on it
- $298
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
- Holders
- 9
- Money on it
- $128
- Holders' win rate
- 31%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$298 on it
- 10x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-179244949675485% won of 13$149+$8.7K lifetime
- 20xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl80% won of 1,104 · balanced$41+$28K lifetime
- 3LornaPredicts28% won of 15,917 · noise$34+$28K lifetime
- 4pootytherewardfarmer35% won of 10,703$18−$320K lifetime
- 5Te0n261% won of 836 · whale$9+$43K lifetime
No$128 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$66+$254K lifetime
- 2UTILIZADOR23% won of 1,375$36−$6.9K lifetime
- 3cigarettes46% won of 49,306$14−$51K lifetime
- 4garbagecollect451% won of 6,670 · whale$5+$499 lifetime
- 5ZhouCD49% won of 2,459$3−$18K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-04 House election by 30%-35%?"?
33 wallets hold a position worth $426 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 33 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754, with $149 on it, $8.7K lifetime profit over 13 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $66 on it, $254K lifetime profit over 123,272 markets (40% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-04 House election by 30%-35%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 27¢ and No at 73¢, a 73% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
84% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 26 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 17 points. A week ago, Yes by 22 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.