Who's betting on “Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-01 House election by 35%-40%?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $13K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.7K by 31 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 94% 21 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 96% 10 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 24¢ and No at 77¢, a 77% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
94% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 7 points.
Who holds it
31 wallets hold a position worth $1.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 31 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl, with $244 on it, $28K lifetime profit over 1,104 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is flexibleagedbeef, with $923 on it, $2.3K lifetime profit over 11 markets (91% won).
- Holders
- 21
- Money on it
- $676
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
- Holders
- 10
- Money on it
- $996
- Holders' win rate
- 88%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$676 on it
- 10xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl80% won of 1,104 · balanced$244+$28K lifetime
- 2SnapElectionAvoider48% won of 2,242 · whale$175+$203K lifetime
- 3fkpa82% won of 342 · balanced$96+$42K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$94+$254K lifetime
- 5Fihdrzgdd40% won of 3,576$24−$20K lifetime
No$996 on it
- 1flexibleagedbeef91% won of 11$923+$2.3K lifetime
- 2cigarettes46% won of 49,301$31−$52K lifetime
- 3LornaPredicts28% won of 15,917 · noise$21+$28K lifetime
- 4Haradwaith50% won of 54,120$8−$378K lifetime
- 5PPMT70% won of 56,842 · whale$8+$16K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-01 House election by 35%-40%?"?
31 wallets hold a position worth $1.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 31 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl, with $244 on it, $28K lifetime profit over 1,104 markets (80% won). The largest No holder is flexibleagedbeef, with $923 on it, $2.3K lifetime profit over 11 markets (91% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AR-01 House election by 35%-40%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 24¢ and No at 77¢, a 77% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
94% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 7 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.