Who's betting on “Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?”?
Polkyo has not scored enough holders on both sides yet to say where the smart money sits. It fills in as people trade.
- Volume
- $12K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.9K by 47 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- - 25 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- - 22 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 28¢ and No at 73¢, a 73% implied chance of No. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 6, 2026.
The smart money
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
Who holds it
47 wallets hold a position worth $3.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 47 of them. The largest Yes holder is podairpod, with $576 on it, $24K lifetime profit over 826 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is TheWindKnowsmyName, with $626 on it, $52K lifetime loss over 714 markets (67% won).
- Holders
- 25
- Money on it
- $1.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Holders
- 22
- Money on it
- $2.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.5K on it
- 1podairpod61% won of 826 · whale$576+$24K lifetime
- 21773597747% won of 233 · balanced$413+$4.4K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme39% won of 142,870 · noise$162+$271K lifetime
- 4perfectnostalgia53% won of 937 · whale$140+$156K lifetime
- 5firegold70% won of 610 · whale$55+$31K lifetime
No$2.5K on it
- 1TheWindKnowsmyName67% won of 714$626−$52K lifetime
- 2grinder101149% won of 550 · whale$390+$14K lifetime
- 3Antony8266% won of 808 · balanced$364+$4.3K lifetime
- 4marksman46% won of 977 · whale$279+$20K lifetime
- 5flexibleagedbeef85% won of 20 · balanced$279+$2.1K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in October Unemployment Rate
1 moreOther big economy markets
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$2.5M vol.Yes 28%No 73%Smart money split
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$2.4M vol.Yes 71%No 30%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$2.1M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Too little scored money to compare
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.9M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Too little scored money to compare
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.4M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 70%No 31%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$347K vol.Yes 26%No 75%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?"?
47 wallets hold a position worth $3.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 47 of them. The largest Yes holder is podairpod, with $576 on it, $24K lifetime profit over 826 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is TheWindKnowsmyName, with $626 on it, $52K lifetime loss over 714 markets (67% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 28¢ and No at 73¢, a 73% implied chance of No. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 6, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
One side holds too little money from wallets with a record (under $5K) to compare where the profitable money sits; Polkyo shows no lean until both sides have enough.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 6, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.