Who's betting on “Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 83% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 45 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $32K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.6K by 123 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 83% 57 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 38% 66 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 99¢ and No at 1¢, a 99% implied chance of Yes. $32K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 11, 2026.
The smart money
83% of the money on Yes and 38% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 45 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 45 points.
Who holds it
123 wallets hold a position worth $3.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 123 of them. The largest Yes holder is jcharger, with $683 on it, $31K lifetime profit over 206 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is AMAM13, with $3 on it, $120K lifetime loss over 6,780 markets (55% won).
Sharp money
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $568 on Yes.
- Holders
- 57
- Money on it
- $3.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 2 · $568
- Holders
- 66
- Money on it
- $25
- Holders' win rate
- 44%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.6K on it
- 1jcharger65% won of 206 · balanced$683+$31K lifetime
- 20x6fa7…907e87% won of 870 · sniper$366+$41K lifetime
- 3molodoyy50% won of 643 · whale$273+$46K lifetime
- 4Mithrandir.90% won of 556 · whale$237+$11K lifetime
- 5Leclerc0450% won of 1,217 · balanced$218+$3.7K lifetime
No$25 on it
- 1AMAM1355% won of 6,780$3−$120K lifetime
- 2monoclith37% won of 2,378$2−$46K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,511 · noise$2+$254K lifetime
- 4acc4202049% won of 865 · whale$2+$12K lifetime
- 5Started-with-20-USD55% won of 571 · whale$1+$54K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?
1 moreOther big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.8M vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money split
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.8M vol.Yes 77%No 24%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.0M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?"?
123 wallets hold a position worth $3.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 123 of them. The largest Yes holder is jcharger, with $683 on it, $31K lifetime profit over 206 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is AMAM13, with $3 on it, $120K lifetime loss over 6,780 markets (55% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 99¢ and No at 1¢, a 99% implied chance of Yes. $32K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 11, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 38% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 45 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 45 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 11, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.