Who's betting on “Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?”?
Smart money leans No: 71% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 69 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $43K traded all time
- Held now
- $32K by 102 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 2% 37 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 71% 62 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 28¢ and No at 72¢, a 72% implied chance of No. $43K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
The smart money
2% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 69 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 66 points. A week ago, No by 58 points.
Who holds it
102 wallets hold a position worth $32K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 99 of them. The largest Yes holder is Pentagon.insider.informator, with $2.4K on it, $5.2K lifetime loss over 4 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is GollumGekko, with $4.6K on it, $290K lifetime profit over 1,183 markets (73% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $143 on No.
- Holders
- 38
- Money on it
- $9.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 29%
- Holders
- 64
- Money on it
- $23K
- Holders' win rate
- 75%
- Snipers
- 1 · $143
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$9.1K on it
- 1Pentagon.insider.informator50% won of 4$2.4K−$5.2K lifetime
- 2Tomson45634% won of 61$1.7K−$1.9K lifetime
- 3shdpahdfuldfk8820% won of 61$1.6K−$2.0K lifetime
- 40x1b227f850f7b66DccC62f9780D0B2e4CdBc753CD-176870223695450% won of 2$1.0K−$752 lifetime
- 50x8387E118286c6B12E193974f84e93E0D1e6d3e69-1789163253571no record yet$747−$368 lifetime
No$23K on it
- 1GollumGekko73% won of 1,183 · whale$4.6K+$290K lifetime
- 20x47AA2e0410E1125B8320CDdb7074C0fa5E7da209-1756766013120100% won of 7$4.2K+$2.6K lifetime
- 3yomayo78% won of 108$3.6K−$24K lifetime
- 4StarMaster54% won of 944 · whale$2.6K+$98K lifetime
- 5Haradwaith50% won of 54,120$1.4K−$378K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?"?
102 wallets hold a position worth $32K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 99 of them. The largest Yes holder is Pentagon.insider.informator, with $2.4K on it, $5.2K lifetime loss over 4 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is GollumGekko, with $4.6K on it, $290K lifetime profit over 1,183 markets (73% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 28¢ and No at 72¢, a 72% implied chance of No. $43K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
2% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 69 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 66 points. A week ago, No by 58 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.