Who's betting on “Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 90% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 70 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $240K traded all time
- Held now
- $41K by 191 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 20% 34 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 90% 157 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $240K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
20% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 70 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 71 points. A week ago, No by 72 points.
Who holds it
191 wallets hold a position worth $41K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 191 of them. The largest Yes holder is heypresto, with $15 on it, $1.7K lifetime loss. The largest No holder is Dafu0715, with $12K on it, $114K lifetime profit over 289 markets (70% won).
- Holders
- 34
- Money on it
- $62
- Holders' win rate
- 42%
- Holders
- 157
- Money on it
- $41K
- Holders' win rate
- 79%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$62 on it
- 1heyprestono record yet$15−$1.7K lifetime
- 20x21599575bA9e9e2fcDcBc0e13A69f0635aCC4432-176773260718815% won of 68$8−$368 lifetime
- 30xF2E7D7fCCa0eaee6F1740402c1118F6f8C53843E-176264566391741% won of 109$8−$3.5K lifetime
- 40x50ea…010f29% won of 187$5−$2.4K lifetime
- 5adasol71% won of 323 · whale$5+$21K lifetime
No$41K on it
- 1Dafu071570% won of 289 · whale$12K+$114K lifetime
- 2yingxer85% won of 48 · whale$6.2K+$77K lifetime
- 3UnderwriterGCR85% won of 203 · whale$4.8K+$18K lifetime
- 4yonose65% won of 23 · balanced$2.0K+$1.1K lifetime
- 5kinderSman85% won of 877 · whale$2.0K+$150K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?"?
191 wallets hold a position worth $41K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 191 of them. The largest Yes holder is heypresto, with $15 on it, $1.7K lifetime loss. The largest No holder is Dafu0715, with $12K on it, $114K lifetime profit over 289 markets (70% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $240K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
20% of the money on Yes and 90% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 70 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 71 points. A week ago, No by 72 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.