Who's betting on “Will the Democratic Party win the CA-19 House seat?”?
Smart money leans No: 80% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 35 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $31K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.5K by 30 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 45% 17 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 80% 13 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 98¢ and No at 2¢, a 98% implied chance of Yes. $31K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
45% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 36 points. A week ago, No by 34 points.
Who holds it
30 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 30 of them. The largest Yes holder is altsu, with $1.9K on it, $463 lifetime loss over 30 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is planktonXD, with $5 on it, $132K lifetime profit over 6,321 markets (76% won).
- Holders
- 17
- Money on it
- $3.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
- Holders
- 13
- Money on it
- $9
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.5K on it
- 1altsu60% won of 30$1.9K−$463 lifetime
- 2Ryxon2181% won of 609 · whale$798+$133K lifetime
- 3Spectrum76% won of 487 · whale$393+$9.0K lifetime
- 4immanuelcan78% won of 1,011 · whale$167+$39K lifetime
- 5aviato80% won of 1,340 · whale$118+$201K lifetime
No$9 on it
- 1planktonXD76% won of 6,321 · whale$5+$132K lifetime
- 20xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,148 · noise$1+$334K lifetime
- 3Rain-Prob-015% won of 207$1−$312 lifetime
- 4HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$1+$325K lifetime
- 50x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-179243706475847% won of 827$0−$8.4K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in CA-19 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
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- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democratic Party win the CA-19 House seat?"?
30 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 30 of them. The largest Yes holder is altsu, with $1.9K on it, $463 lifetime loss over 30 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is planktonXD, with $5 on it, $132K lifetime profit over 6,321 markets (76% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democratic Party win the CA-19 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 98¢ and No at 2¢, a 98% implied chance of Yes. $31K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
45% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 36 points. A week ago, No by 34 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.