Who's betting on “Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-08 House seat?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 58% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 48 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $13K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.2K by 36 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 58% 20 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 10% 16 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
58% of the money on Yes and 10% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 48 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 34 points. A week ago, Yes by 6 points.
Who holds it
36 wallets hold a position worth $1.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 36 of them. The largest Yes holder is lonehighway, with $84 on it, $2.4K lifetime loss over 203 markets (90% won). The largest No holder is Hyperlong, with $653 on it, $59K lifetime loss over 1,296 markets (51% won).
- Holders
- 20
- Money on it
- $294
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
- Holders
- 16
- Money on it
- $956
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$294 on it
- 1lonehighway90% won of 203$84−$2.4K lifetime
- 2SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$80+$48K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,169 · noise$48+$254K lifetime
- 40x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393842% won of 9,618 · whale$39+$127K lifetime
- 50x295542613a56F22F0B726B1D26DC4Eaf681e0738-178090330758946% won of 248$28−$1.6K lifetime
No$956 on it
- 1Hyperlong51% won of 1,296$653−$59K lifetime
- 2Haradwaith50% won of 53,882$116−$377K lifetime
- 3ABC1234565432148% won of 5,905$48−$1.2K lifetime
- 4immanuelcan78% won of 1,011 · whale$44+$39K lifetime
- 5h03859602735584% won of 269 · whale$36+$16K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
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- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-08 House seat?"?
36 wallets hold a position worth $1.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 36 of them. The largest Yes holder is lonehighway, with $84 on it, $2.4K lifetime loss over 203 markets (90% won). The largest No holder is Hyperlong, with $653 on it, $59K lifetime loss over 1,296 markets (51% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-08 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $13K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
58% of the money on Yes and 10% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 48 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 34 points. A week ago, Yes by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.