Who's betting on “Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 55 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $116K traded all time
- Held now
- $51K by 139 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 87% 73 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 32% 66 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 44¢ and No at 56¢, a 56% implied chance of No. $116K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
87% of the money on Yes and 32% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 55 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 53 points. A week ago, Yes by 63 points.
Who holds it
139 wallets hold a position worth $51K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 139 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xc8b9…b836, with $7.5K on it, $371K lifetime profit over 552 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is Gaditima, with $11K on it, $431K lifetime loss over 12,103 markets (49% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $644 on Yes.
- Holders
- 73
- Money on it
- $25K
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 1 · $644
- Holders
- 66
- Money on it
- $26K
- Holders' win rate
- 52%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$25K on it
- 10xc8b9…b83664% won of 552 · whale$7.5K+$371K lifetime
- 2Chungvicular45% won of 201 · noise$3.5K+$35K lifetime
- 30x7F883cD0a3259D1BC640C0E19A72a0f2D6c7f76e-179175406304655% won of 11$2.2K−$400 lifetime
- 4SitsToPee53% won of 2,065 · whale$2.0K+$48K lifetime
- 5BigRabbit36% won of 1,102 · noise$1.7K+$127K lifetime
No$26K on it
- 1Gaditima49% won of 12,103$11K−$431K lifetime
- 2grinder101147% won of 519 · whale$3.5K+$11K lifetime
- 3anoin12359% won of 1,608$2.7K−$4.7M lifetime
- 4Haradwaith50% won of 53,968$1.1K−$377K lifetime
- 50x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393842% won of 9,618 · whale$1.1K+$127K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in AL-02 House Election Winner
1 moreOther big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?"?
139 wallets hold a position worth $51K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 139 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xc8b9…b836, with $7.5K on it, $371K lifetime profit over 552 markets (64% won). The largest No holder is Gaditima, with $11K on it, $431K lifetime loss over 12,103 markets (49% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 44¢ and No at 56¢, a 56% implied chance of No. $116K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
87% of the money on Yes and 32% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 55 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 53 points. A week ago, Yes by 63 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.