Who's betting on “Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-04 House election by 20%-25%?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $10K traded all time
- Held now
- $606 by 33 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 79% 14 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 79% 19 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 34¢ and No at 67¢, a 67% implied chance of No. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
The smart money
79% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 29 points.
Who holds it
33 wallets hold a position worth $606 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 33 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $125 on it, $254K lifetime profit over 123,272 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is i2dt, with $104 on it, $17K lifetime profit over 356 markets (71% won).
- Holders
- 14
- Money on it
- $354
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 19
- Money on it
- $252
- Holders' win rate
- 55%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$354 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$125+$254K lifetime
- 2fkpa82% won of 342 · balanced$113+$42K lifetime
- 3K80PRO56% won of 908$57−$347 lifetime
- 4sweetj64% won of 487 · whale$33+$11K lifetime
- 5BOOST25042% won of 2,582$7−$2.2K lifetime
No$252 on it
- 1i2dt71% won of 356 · whale$104+$17K lifetime
- 2LornaPredicts28% won of 15,917 · noise$54+$28K lifetime
- 3aliiz78% won of 1,248 · balanced$14+$8.0K lifetime
- 4broskye49% won of 465 · balanced$13+$9.3K lifetime
- 5cigarettes46% won of 49,301$13−$52K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-04 House election by 20%-25%?"?
33 wallets hold a position worth $606 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 33 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $125 on it, $254K lifetime profit over 123,272 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is i2dt, with $104 on it, $17K lifetime profit over 356 markets (71% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-04 House election by 20%-25%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 34¢ and No at 67¢, a 67% implied chance of No. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 29 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.