Who's betting on “Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 76% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 35 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $28K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.0K by 90 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 76% 59 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 41% 31 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 25¢ and No at 75¢, a 75% implied chance of No. $28K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 9, 2026.
The smart money
76% of the money on Yes and 41% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 40 points. A week ago, Yes by 48 points.
Who holds it
90 wallets hold a position worth $4.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 90 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938, with $281 on it, $127K lifetime profit over 9,618 markets (42% won). The largest No holder is DuneMentat, with $502 on it, $12K lifetime loss over 841 markets (74% won).
- Holders
- 59
- Money on it
- $2.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 31
- Money on it
- $1.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.2K on it
- 10x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-177187035393842% won of 9,618 · whale$281+$127K lifetime
- 2podairpod61% won of 821 · whale$269+$26K lifetime
- 3perfectnostalgia52% won of 932 · whale$266+$153K lifetime
- 4TheWindKnowsmyName68% won of 490$203−$52K lifetime
- 5autisem68% won of 279 · whale$200+$2.8K lifetime
No$1.7K on it
- 1DuneMentat74% won of 841$502−$12K lifetime
- 2Hyperlong51% won of 1,296$375−$59K lifetime
- 3Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed56% won of 15,956 · whale$344+$163K lifetime
- 4AiBird57% won of 1,279 · whale$284+$122K lifetime
- 5LornaPredicts28% won of 15,896 · noise$49+$28K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Bank of Canada Decision in December?
1 moreOther big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.7M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$954K vol.Yes 3%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?"?
90 wallets hold a position worth $4.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 90 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938, with $281 on it, $127K lifetime profit over 9,618 markets (42% won). The largest No holder is DuneMentat, with $502 on it, $12K lifetime loss over 841 markets (74% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 25¢ and No at 75¢, a 75% implied chance of No. $28K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 9, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
76% of the money on Yes and 41% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 40 points. A week ago, Yes by 48 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 9, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.