Who's betting on “Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 72% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 14 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $62K traded all time
- Held now
- $20K by 165 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 72% 89 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 58% 76 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 45¢ and No at 55¢, a 55% implied chance of No. $62K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
72% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 13 points. A week ago, Yes by 9 points.
Who holds it
165 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 165 of them. The largest Yes holder is bZk0Uo, with $1.3K on it, $132 lifetime profit over 900 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $2.9K on it, $4.7M lifetime loss over 1,608 markets (59% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $983 on No.
- Holders
- 89
- Money on it
- $8.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
- Holders
- 76
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 1 · $983
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$8.9K on it
- 1bZk0Uo70% won of 900 · whale$1.3K+$132 lifetime
- 2Rhabarberbarbarbar64% won of 226 · whale$1.0K+$59K lifetime
- 3annacallsit50% won of 177$726−$2.9K lifetime
- 4Valiv56% won of 177 · balanced$593+$1.4K lifetime
- 5tcs-31213% won of 15$517−$570 lifetime
No$11K on it
- 1anoin12359% won of 1,608$2.9K−$4.7M lifetime
- 2paddaa58% won of 1,507 · whale$1.9K+$288K lifetime
- 3Outsmarter75% won of 153 · sniper$983+$75K lifetime
- 40x75772c0fad8BB3EeFb12bAe32EeF8a58e7EE8fB9-177115719040396% won of 49 · grinder$629+$1.9K lifetime
- 5macrosteaks64% won of 2,614$578−$8.2K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?"?
165 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 165 of them. The largest Yes holder is bZk0Uo, with $1.3K on it, $132 lifetime profit over 900 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is anoin123, with $2.9K on it, $4.7M lifetime loss over 1,608 markets (59% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 45¢ and No at 55¢, a 55% implied chance of No. $62K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
72% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 14 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 13 points. A week ago, Yes by 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.