Who's betting on “Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 25 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $58K traded all time
- Held now
- $6.1K by 68 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 62% 39 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 87% 29 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 22¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $58K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
62% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 34 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
Who holds it
68 wallets hold a position worth $6.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 68 of them. The largest Yes holder is bigdickprick, with $290 on it, $41K lifetime loss over 32 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is HDGB, with $1.4K on it, $75K lifetime profit over 498 markets (65% won).
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $1.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
- Holders
- 29
- Money on it
- $4.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.3K on it
- 1bigdickprick44% won of 32$290−$41K lifetime
- 2BigMackyG71% won of 228 · whale$283+$44K lifetime
- 3t4zuwbigfjnrs70% won of 10$245+$353 lifetime
- 4Started-with-20-USD55% won of 571 · whale$101+$54K lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,324 · noise$100+$254K lifetime
No$4.8K on it
- 1HDGB65% won of 498 · whale$1.4K+$75K lifetime
- 2ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,063 · whale$1.4K+$313K lifetime
- 30xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$644+$61K lifetime
- 4GotGreenWood62% won of 1,052$495−$5.7K lifetime
- 50xJasonSan78% won of 662 · whale$344+$14K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
3 more- 5.10%$81K vol.Yes 51%No 49%Smart money: No
- 5.05%$16K vol.Yes 56%No 45%Smart money split
- 4.90%$12K vol.Yes 85%No 16%Smart money: No
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?"?
68 wallets hold a position worth $6.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 68 of them. The largest Yes holder is bigdickprick, with $290 on it, $41K lifetime loss over 32 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is HDGB, with $1.4K on it, $75K lifetime profit over 498 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 22¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $58K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
62% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 34 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.