Who's betting on “Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 96% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 40 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $81K traded all time
- Held now
- $11K by 94 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 56% 46 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 96% 48 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 51¢ and No at 49¢, a 51% implied chance of Yes. $81K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
56% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 37 points. A week ago, No by 38 points.
Who holds it
94 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 94 of them. The largest Yes holder is cookedquail, with $1.9K on it, $25K lifetime profit over 90 markets (87% won). The largest No holder is HDGB, with $1.5K on it, $75K lifetime profit over 498 markets (65% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.9K on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $116 on No.
- Holders
- 46
- Money on it
- $5.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.9K
- Holders
- 48
- Money on it
- $5.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 1 · $116
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$5.6K on it
- 1cookedquail87% won of 90 · sniper$1.9K+$25K lifetime
- 2GotGreenWood62% won of 1,052$1.1K−$5.7K lifetime
- 3bigdickprick44% won of 32$763−$41K lifetime
- 4DW172% won of 262 · balanced$382+$447 lifetime
- 50xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,163 · noise$270+$335K lifetime
No$5.4K on it
- 1HDGB65% won of 498 · whale$1.5K+$75K lifetime
- 2Stonktrader94% won of 250 · whale$1.4K+$98K lifetime
- 30xJasonSan78% won of 662 · whale$654+$14K lifetime
- 4t4zuwbigfjnrs70% won of 10$463+$353 lifetime
- 5ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,063 · whale$343+$313K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
3 more- 5.25%$58K vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money: No
- 5.05%$16K vol.Yes 56%No 45%Smart money split
- 4.90%$12K vol.Yes 85%No 16%Smart money: No
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?"?
94 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 94 of them. The largest Yes holder is cookedquail, with $1.9K on it, $25K lifetime profit over 90 markets (87% won). The largest No holder is HDGB, with $1.5K on it, $75K lifetime profit over 498 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 51¢ and No at 49¢, a 51% implied chance of Yes. $81K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
56% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 37 points. A week ago, No by 38 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.