Who's betting on “Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 79% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 25 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $12K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.7K by 22 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 54% 11 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 79% 11 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 85¢ and No at 16¢, an 85% implied chance of Yes. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
54% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points.
Who holds it
22 wallets hold a position worth $1.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 22 of them. The largest Yes holder is GotGreenWood, with $592 on it, $5.7K lifetime loss over 1,052 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $209 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,253 markets (40% won).
- Holders
- 11
- Money on it
- $1.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
- Holders
- 11
- Money on it
- $270
- Holders' win rate
- 42%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.5K on it
- 1GotGreenWood62% won of 1,052$592−$5.7K lifetime
- 20xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$407+$61K lifetime
- 3mavsgseguritas80% won of 82 · balanced$155+$817 lifetime
- 4HDGB65% won of 495 · whale$106+$74K lifetime
- 5LornaPredicts28% won of 15,896 · noise$71+$28K lifetime
No$270 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$209+$255K lifetime
- 2lissartter56% won of 2,997$24−$287K lifetime
- 3Fihdrzgdd40% won of 3,576$16−$20K lifetime
- 4thecaricature44% won of 717$8−$7.9K lifetime
- 5gfdgfvfvssdd43% won of 33,485$6−$23K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
3 more- 5.10%$81K vol.Yes 52%No 49%Smart money: No
- 5.25%$58K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money: No
- 5.05%$16K vol.Yes 62%No 39%Smart money: Yes
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?"?
22 wallets hold a position worth $1.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 22 of them. The largest Yes holder is GotGreenWood, with $592 on it, $5.7K lifetime loss over 1,052 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $209 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,253 markets (40% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 85¢ and No at 16¢, an 85% implied chance of Yes. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
54% of the money on Yes and 79% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.