Who's betting on “Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 81% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 15 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $16K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.2K by 39 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 81% 15 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 66% 24 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 62¢ and No at 39¢, a 62% implied chance of Yes. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
81% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 22 points.
Who holds it
39 wallets hold a position worth $3.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 39 of them. The largest Yes holder is HDGB, with $1.5K on it, $74K lifetime profit over 495 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is 0xff7c…b233, with $412 on it, $61K lifetime profit over 500 markets (67% won).
- Holders
- 15
- Money on it
- $2.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
- Holders
- 24
- Money on it
- $1.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.0K on it
- 1HDGB65% won of 495 · whale$1.5K+$74K lifetime
- 2GotGreenWood62% won of 1,052$202−$5.7K lifetime
- 3SeniorLaghetto55% won of 276 · whale$80+$304K lifetime
- 4rocky4201653% won of 688$73−$8.0K lifetime
- 5Fihdrzgdd40% won of 3,576$62−$20K lifetime
No$1.2K on it
- 10xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$412+$61K lifetime
- 2nj23adsknml350% won of 204$368−$5.0K lifetime
- 30xJasonSan78% won of 662 · whale$121+$14K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$78+$255K lifetime
- 5just-bettor44% won of 1,405 · balanced$72+$3.0K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
3 more- 5.10%$81K vol.Yes 52%No 49%Smart money: No
- 5.25%$58K vol.Yes 22%No 78%Smart money: No
- 4.90%$12K vol.Yes 85%No 16%Smart money: No
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?"?
39 wallets hold a position worth $3.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 39 of them. The largest Yes holder is HDGB, with $1.5K on it, $74K lifetime profit over 495 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is 0xff7c…b233, with $412 on it, $61K lifetime profit over 500 markets (67% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 62¢ and No at 39¢, a 62% implied chance of Yes. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
81% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 22 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.