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Who's betting on “Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% before 2027?”?

Finance$20K traded64 holdersEnds December 31, 2026Updated October 29, 2026
13%Yes🧠 smart money
88%No

Smart money leans Yes: 90% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 5 points ahead of the other side.

Volume
$20K
traded all time
Held now
$5.5K
by 64 wallets
Smart share · Yes
90%
30 scored holders
Smart share · No
85%
34 scored holders
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What the money says

The odds

Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $20K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.

The smart money

90% of the money on Yes and 85% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 5 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.

Who holds it

64 wallets hold a position worth $5.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 64 of them. The largest Yes holder is HDGB, with $371 on it, $74K lifetime profit over 495 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is Alicie, with $1.3K on it, $1.3K lifetime profit over 17 markets (76% won).

Yes13%
🧠 Smart money leans here
Smart money share90% ▲ 4 pts in 24 h
7 days ago 82%a day ago 86%now 90%
Holders
30
Money on it
$691
Holders' win rate
62%
No88%
Smart money share85%
7 days ago 82%a day ago 85%now 85%
Holders
34
Money on it
$4.8K
Holders' win rate
75%

The biggest holders on each side

with their lifetime records

Yes$691 on it

  1. 1HDGB65% won of 495 · whale$371+$74K lifetime
  2. 2t4zuwbigfjnrs70% won of 10$167+$353 lifetime
  3. 3SuperTests52% won of 1,676 · balanced$34+$15K lifetime
  4. 4Dr.PNL30% won of 15,261$21−$485K lifetime
  5. 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$17+$255K lifetime

No$4.8K on it

  1. 1Alicie76% won of 17$1.3K+$1.3K lifetime
  2. 2flexibleagedbeef91% won of 11$1.3K+$2.3K lifetime
  3. 3ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,063 · whale$526+$313K lifetime
  4. 4aviato80% won of 1,340 · whale$279+$201K lifetime
  5. 50x66BE62E50D9945a095d88635BBEcFe4440c3f30e-178162629167975% won of 8$236−$676 lifetime
Every holder on both sides, scored, on the live signal →
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See what the smart money does next, as it happens.

The live signalEvery holder scored, the smart-money chart since it was first tracked, and the order book.Alerts on this marketStar it and hear when it moves, or when a whale or a proven wallet goes in.Watch trades on SonarEvery Polymarket trade of $50+, live, as an ocean.AI Edge ScannerWhere Polkyo's model and the price disagree, after costs.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% before 2027?"?

64 wallets hold a position worth $5.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 64 of them. The largest Yes holder is HDGB, with $371 on it, $74K lifetime profit over 495 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is Alicie, with $1.3K on it, $1.3K lifetime profit over 17 markets (76% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% before 2027?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $20K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

90% of the money on Yes and 85% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 5 points. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.