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Who's betting on “Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.80% before 2027?”?

Finance$20K traded42 holdersEnds December 31, 2026Updated October 29, 2026
9%Yes🧠 smart money
91%No

Smart money leans Yes: 93% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 41 points ahead of the other side.

Volume
$20K
traded all time
Held now
$3.7K
by 42 wallets
Smart share · Yes
93%
21 scored holders
Smart share · No
53%
21 scored holders
📈 Open the live signal🔔 Alert me when smart money moves

What the money says

The odds

Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $20K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.

The smart money

93% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 41 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 18 points.

Who holds it

42 wallets hold a position worth $3.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 42 of them. The largest Yes holder is t4zuwbigfjnrs, with $233 on it, $353 lifetime profit over 10 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is 0x49F206, with $833 on it, $41K lifetime loss over 862 markets (62% won).

Yes9%
🧠 Smart money leans here
Smart money share93% ▲ 23 pts in 24 h
a day ago 71%now 93%
Holders
21
Money on it
$322
Holders' win rate
69%
No91%
Smart money share53%
a day ago 52%now 53%
Holders
21
Money on it
$3.4K
Holders' win rate
68%

The biggest holders on each side

with their lifetime records

Yes$322 on it

  1. 1t4zuwbigfjnrs70% won of 10$233+$353 lifetime
  2. 2fledger88% won of 51 · balanced$30+$455 lifetime
  3. 3HDGB65% won of 498 · whale$28+$75K lifetime
  4. 4biter5518567% won of 3$9−$282 lifetime
  5. 5thecaricature44% won of 717$4−$7.9K lifetime

No$3.4K on it

  1. 10x49F20662% won of 862$833−$41K lifetime
  2. 2commeowder72% won of 280 · whale$797+$195K lifetime
  3. 3GotGreenWood62% won of 1,052$342−$5.7K lifetime
  4. 40xJasonSan78% won of 662 · whale$338+$14K lifetime
  5. 50xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$196+$61K lifetime
Every holder on both sides, scored, on the live signal →
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See what the smart money does next, as it happens.

The live signalEvery holder scored, the smart-money chart since it was first tracked, and the order book.Alerts on this marketStar it and hear when it moves, or when a whale or a proven wallet goes in.Watch trades on SonarEvery Polymarket trade of $50+, live, as an ocean.AI Edge ScannerWhere Polkyo's model and the price disagree, after costs.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.80% before 2027?"?

42 wallets hold a position worth $3.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 42 of them. The largest Yes holder is t4zuwbigfjnrs, with $233 on it, $353 lifetime profit over 10 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is 0x49F206, with $833 on it, $41K lifetime loss over 862 markets (62% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.80% before 2027?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $20K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.

Which side is the smart money on?

93% of the money on Yes and 53% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 41 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 18 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.