Who's betting on “Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $30K traded all time
- Held now
- $10K by 25 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 91% 14 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 95% 11 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $30K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
91% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 12 points.
Who holds it
25 wallets hold a position worth $10K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 25 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x32dbdCA1fd657bD625E7801d118964D08e2ac7f0-1764767200276, with $263 on it, $146 lifetime profit over 15 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is HDGB, with $8.8K on it, $75K lifetime profit over 498 markets (65% won).
- Holders
- 14
- Money on it
- $585
- Holders' win rate
- 73%
- Holders
- 11
- Money on it
- $9.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$585 on it
- 10x32dbdCA1fd657bD625E7801d118964D08e2ac7f0-176476720027673% won of 15$263+$146 lifetime
- 2fledger88% won of 51 · balanced$228+$455 lifetime
- 3ViscaElBarca1% won of 12,734$37−$65K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$20+$254K lifetime
- 5HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$14+$325K lifetime
No$9.7K on it
- 1HDGB65% won of 498 · whale$8.8K+$75K lifetime
- 20x49F20662% won of 862$417−$41K lifetime
- 3title157% won of 1,363 · whale$175+$24K lifetime
- 4commeowder72% won of 280 · whale$99+$195K lifetime
- 5Digital-Boy16% won of 2,232$84−$78K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
8 more- Below 5.10%$31K vol.Yes 35%No 65%Smart money: No
- Below 5.05%$28K vol.Yes 27%No 73%Smart money: No
- Below 5.00%$27K vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: No
- Below 5.20%$26K vol.Yes 54%No 46%Smart money: Yes
- Below 5.15%$26K vol.Yes 42%No 58%Smart money: No
- Below 4.90%$23K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money: No
- Below 4.80%$20K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: Yes
- Below 4.95%$20K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?"?
25 wallets hold a position worth $10K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 25 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x32dbdCA1fd657bD625E7801d118964D08e2ac7f0-1764767200276, with $263 on it, $146 lifetime profit over 15 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is HDGB, with $8.8K on it, $75K lifetime profit over 498 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $30K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
91% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.