Who's betting on “Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 84% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 39 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $23K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.9K by 50 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 45% 29 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 84% 21 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $23K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
45% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 39 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 39 points. A week ago, No by 46 points.
Who holds it
50 wallets hold a position worth $1.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 50 of them. The largest Yes holder is nj23adsknml3, with $67 on it, $5.0K lifetime loss over 204 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is Started-with-20-USD, with $423 on it, $54K lifetime profit over 571 markets (55% won).
- Holders
- 29
- Money on it
- $223
- Holders' win rate
- 47%
- Holders
- 21
- Money on it
- $1.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$223 on it
- 1nj23adsknml350% won of 204$67−$5.0K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$29+$254K lifetime
- 3SuperTests52% won of 1,676 · balanced$27+$15K lifetime
- 4HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$19+$325K lifetime
- 5Numitus199449% won of 15,786$12−$28K lifetime
No$1.6K on it
- 1Started-with-20-USD55% won of 571 · whale$423+$54K lifetime
- 2ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,063 · whale$420+$313K lifetime
- 30xJasonSan78% won of 662 · whale$189+$14K lifetime
- 4sbimbg84% won of 1,403 · whale$164+$115K lifetime
- 5derm0rx37% won of 60$138+$247 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
8 more- Below 5.10%$31K vol.Yes 35%No 65%Smart money: No
- Below 4.60%$30K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money split
- Below 5.05%$28K vol.Yes 27%No 73%Smart money: No
- Below 5.00%$27K vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: No
- Below 5.20%$26K vol.Yes 54%No 46%Smart money: Yes
- Below 5.15%$26K vol.Yes 42%No 58%Smart money: No
- Below 4.80%$20K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: Yes
- Below 4.95%$20K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% before 2027?"?
50 wallets hold a position worth $1.9K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 50 of them. The largest Yes holder is nj23adsknml3, with $67 on it, $5.0K lifetime loss over 204 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is Started-with-20-USD, with $423 on it, $54K lifetime profit over 571 markets (55% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $23K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
45% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 39 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 39 points. A week ago, No by 46 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.