Who's betting on “Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?”?
Finance · $1.0M volume · Ends January 2, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 67¢ and No at 33¢, a 67% implied chance of Yes. $1.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 2, 2027.
83% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 8 points. A week ago, Yes by 7 points.
1,217 wallets hold a position worth $389K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,215 of them. The largest Yes holder is TheReturnOfDarthMaul, with $71K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,014 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is 0xffBbF885454E6930e54b720ad5224175b8AE36e9-1720913580384, with $33K on it, $46K lifetime profit over 9 markets (67% won).
- Smart money share
- 83%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $297K
- Holders' winrate
- 74%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 74%
- Holders
- 217
- Money on it
- $92K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| TheReturnOfDarthMaulwhale | $71K | +$1.5M | 60% of 1,014 |
| no1yetwhale | $34K | +$48K | 90% of 152 |
| Bertapotamouswhale | $33K | +$295K | 85% of 1,019 |
| BMM-1balanced | $21K | +$37K | 95% of 20 |
| forinnerpsandr1x11222whale | $18K | +$89K | 83% of 297 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xffBbF885454E6930e54b720ad5224175b8AE36e9-1720913580384 | $33K | +$46K | 67% of 9 |
| UnreasonableAwareness | $21K | +$0 | - |
| 0x903221b1whale | $16K | +$414K | 55% of 1,000 |
| occasionalAwarenesswhale | $13K | +$1.1M | 63% of 1,003 |
| akimbogodwhale | $1.2K | +$29K | 71% of 133 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic$1.4M vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: No
- Kraken$668K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Revolut$660K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- SHEIN$636K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Databricks$629K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- OpenAI$589K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Waymo$345K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- ByteDance$223K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Discord$204K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Stripe$173K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Perplexity AI$134K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.1M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?"?
1,217 wallets hold a position worth $389K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,215 of them. The largest Yes holder is TheReturnOfDarthMaul, with $71K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,014 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is 0xffBbF885454E6930e54b720ad5224175b8AE36e9-1720913580384, with $33K on it, $46K lifetime profit over 9 markets (67% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 67¢ and No at 33¢, a 67% implied chance of Yes. $1.0M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 2, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 8 points. A week ago, Yes by 7 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 2, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.