Who's betting on “Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 54% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 30 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $123K traded all time
- Held now
- $12K by 152 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 24% 83 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 54% 69 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $123K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
24% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 30 points. A week ago, No by 31 points.
Who holds it
152 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 152 of them. The largest Yes holder is TANGO853, with $280 on it, $10K lifetime loss over 353 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is CP-directional, with $2.4K on it, $726 lifetime loss over 149 markets (94% won).
- Holders
- 83
- Money on it
- $677
- Holders' win rate
- 48%
- Holders
- 69
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' win rate
- 78%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$677 on it
- 1TANGO85348% won of 353$280−$10K lifetime
- 2VEF7SmxGhr75% won of 4$72−$222 lifetime
- 3fiter17% won of 842 · noise$38+$50K lifetime
- 40x1d1f…6f8d13% won of 31$24−$513 lifetime
- 5groppone70% won of 201 · balanced$20+$999 lifetime
No$11K on it
- 1CP-directional94% won of 149$2.4K−$726 lifetime
- 2ololololololololo62% won of 114$2.4K−$101K lifetime
- 3Porx84% won of 411 · whale$2.1K+$106K lifetime
- 40xDf273e0fE72a613b27de588aaA5237F3B76ae6E4-177305021622177% won of 243 · balanced$1.6K+$4.4K lifetime
- 5MrNoItAll90% won of 514 · whale$761+$38K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Russia nuclear test by...?
1 moreOther big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?"?
152 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 152 of them. The largest Yes holder is TANGO853, with $280 on it, $10K lifetime loss over 353 markets (48% won). The largest No holder is CP-directional, with $2.4K on it, $726 lifetime loss over 149 markets (94% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $123K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
24% of the money on Yes and 54% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 30 points. A week ago, No by 31 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.