Who's betting on “Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $66K traded all time
- Held now
- $23K by 126 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 92% 69 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 91% 57 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $66K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
92% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
126 wallets hold a position worth $23K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 126 of them. The largest Yes holder is NiceDuckBro, with $878 on it, $11K lifetime profit over 240 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is Gladius7, with $13K on it, $33K lifetime profit over 249 markets (66% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $343 on No.
- Holders
- 69
- Money on it
- $2.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
- Holders
- 57
- Money on it
- $21K
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
- Snipers
- 1 · $343
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.5K on it
- 1NiceDuckBro70% won of 240 · whale$878+$11K lifetime
- 2DumplingBMF70% won of 1,239 · whale$773+$260K lifetime
- 3randomWalkingShrimp89% won of 231 · whale$234+$39K lifetime
- 45.6sol31% won of 213$80−$7.2K lifetime
- 5SubashChandraBose73% won of 347 · balanced$74+$18K lifetime
No$21K on it
- 1Gladius766% won of 249 · balanced$13K+$33K lifetime
- 2Barcide72% won of 206 · balanced$2.1K+$13K lifetime
- 30xB4BA5CA84E9B4818566792Ac3A7c4d0CB6a04cEd-177619441063476% won of 116$805−$1.0K lifetime
- 4JoeBlack0165% won of 1,023 · whale$604+$89K lifetime
- 5flexibleagedbeef91% won of 11$595+$2.3K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?"?
126 wallets hold a position worth $23K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 126 of them. The largest Yes holder is NiceDuckBro, with $878 on it, $11K lifetime profit over 240 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is Gladius7, with $13K on it, $33K lifetime profit over 249 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $66K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
92% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.