Who's betting on “Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 93% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 40 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $295K traded all time
- Held now
- $22K by 188 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 53% 106 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 93% 82 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $295K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
53% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 40 points. A week ago, No by 29 points.
Who holds it
188 wallets hold a position worth $22K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 188 of them. The largest Yes holder is Chia, with $141 on it, $544K lifetime profit over 44 markets (36% won). The largest No holder is 0xB7C185aF4c49541326bA71B4Bfe4844144fc675E-1764804714515, with $5.3K on it, $7.9K lifetime profit over 149 markets (70% won).
- Holders
- 106
- Money on it
- $1.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
- Holders
- 82
- Money on it
- $21K
- Holders' win rate
- 75%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.0K on it
- 1Chia36% won of 44 · outlier$141+$544K lifetime
- 2Alderamin52% won of 27$110−$33 lifetime
- 3Perypery30% won of 473 · noise$59+$44K lifetime
- 4HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$59+$325K lifetime
- 5Kutra38% won of 138$55−$2.6K lifetime
No$21K on it
- 10xB7C185aF4c49541326bA71B4Bfe4844144fc675E-176480471451570% won of 149 · balanced$5.3K+$7.9K lifetime
- 2cocos22871% won of 110 · whale$2.7K+$537K lifetime
- 3bifurcatio77% won of 117 · balanced$1.8K+$3.5K lifetime
- 4zatic100% won of 5$1.5K+$552 lifetime
- 5GaioMario73% won of 223 · balanced$1.5K+$11K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?"?
188 wallets hold a position worth $22K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 188 of them. The largest Yes holder is Chia, with $141 on it, $544K lifetime profit over 44 markets (36% won). The largest No holder is 0xB7C185aF4c49541326bA71B4Bfe4844144fc675E-1764804714515, with $5.3K on it, $7.9K lifetime profit over 149 markets (70% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $295K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
53% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 40 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 40 points. A week ago, No by 29 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.