Who's betting on “Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 77% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 57 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $227K traded all time
- Held now
- $20K by 174 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 20% 56 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 77% 118 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $227K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
20% of the money on Yes and 77% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 57 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 54 points. A week ago, No by 58 points.
Who holds it
174 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 174 of them. The largest Yes holder is Nik2025, with $70 on it, $1.2K lifetime loss over 6 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is yevhenry, with $6.0K on it, $15K lifetime profit over 1,096 markets (56% won).
- Holders
- 56
- Money on it
- $258
- Holders' win rate
- 47%
- Holders
- 118
- Money on it
- $20K
- Holders' win rate
- 77%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$258 on it
- 1Nik202550% won of 6$70−$1.2K lifetime
- 20x00E4BeEB4754d843C760092501114b3811F87f67-17717825180940% won of 4$34−$948 lifetime
- 3Volku13% won of 85$32−$7.8K lifetime
- 40x3af328BDb7E12Bed891F5B162C37F6C25d2d6214-177893365568891% won of 11$17+$18 lifetime
- 5BetsAhead42% won of 38 · noise$14+$1.2K lifetime
No$20K on it
- 1yevhenry56% won of 1,096 · whale$6.0K+$15K lifetime
- 2shred777788% won of 216 · balanced$1.7K+$9.7K lifetime
- 3beraguess87% won of 205$1.6K−$12K lifetime
- 4sashakushtar91% won of 11$803+$242 lifetime
- 5bmtr63% won of 232 · balanced$639+$16K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?"?
174 wallets hold a position worth $20K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 174 of them. The largest Yes holder is Nik2025, with $70 on it, $1.2K lifetime loss over 6 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is yevhenry, with $6.0K on it, $15K lifetime profit over 1,096 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $227K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
20% of the money on Yes and 77% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 57 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 54 points. A week ago, No by 58 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.